The trilateral initiative: How Britain, Poland and Ukraine can shape a post-war Europe

Executive summary

• On 17th February 2022, Poland, the United Kingdom (UK) and Ukraine agreed to establish a memorandum of understanding to facilitate closer and more structured cooperation between the three countries. Four initial ideas were identified for deeper collaboration: cyber and energy security, countering disinformation, and support for the Crimea Platform.

• Precisely one week later, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leading to the largest invasion on European soil since the Second World War. Trilateral cooperation took place during the initial phases as Britain and Poland rushed to Ukraine’s defence, but Ukraine’s effort to resist the Russian lunge towards Kyiv and efforts to acquire membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU) witnessed the deprioritisation of the new format. 

• In January 2023, the Council on Geostrategy, the Polish Institute of International Affairs and the Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism’ established a commission of experts from the three countries to appraise and identify how trilateral relations could be rekindled in a changed geopolitical environment. In Warsaw in late February and London in June 2023, the three organisations partnered to host two conferences, the deliberations of which form the intellectual inspiration for this Report. 

• This Report appraises trilateral cooperation to date, before outlining why the format still makes sense, not only by complementing existing multilateral formats – NATO and the EU – but also by boosting the voice of countries which seek to contain Russian aggression. It also explains how trilateral cooperation between Poland, Ukraine and the UK reinforces European security at a time when the United States may be experiencing domestic political upheaval, which might reduce its capacity for underwriting Ukraine and European defence. 

• After focusing on how Britain and Poland can help Ukraine expedite victory over Russia, the Report identifies five key areas where the three countries should work together in a more coordinated and structured fashion to shape a post-war Europe to their advantage. These include: 
  • Helping Ukraine establish deterrence as it seeks NATO membership;
  • Strengthening the national resilience of the three states; 
  • Consolidating bilateral and trilateral defence-industrial cooperation;
  • Preparing for a robust post-war peace; and, 
  • Boosting connectivity and infrastructure. 

• Finally, the Report outlines 12 policy recommendations for the three governments to consider to rekindle the trilateral initiative. These recommendations are designed to build on the three nations’ shared interests and principles – most important of which is to resist Russian imperialism and uphold the right of European countries to determine their own affairs – and generate the personal and institutional connections to amplify them. 

• Reflecting the areas where coordination is most desirable, these recommendations are designed to help expedite a Ukrainian victory over Russian aggression, deter the Kremlin from future aggression, strengthen national resilience in the three countries by countering hostile discourse and disinformation, consolidate defence-industrial cooperation, ease Ukraine’s accession into NATO and the EU, draw the UK deeper in the security of the region between the Baltic and Black seas, and extend communication and energy linkages between Ukraine and other parts of Europe.

• While the analysis and conclusions drawn in this Report are informed by the Expert Commission, the authors bear ultimate responsibility for its content.