Executive summary
- Whatever policies Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), pursues towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will not make a difference to the long-term aim of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP aims to make the PRC the world’s most powerful country and to change global governance to better suit the CCP’s interests and values. The party sees this dethroning of the US as involving a long-term struggle against hostile forces. While the CCP has long harboured a suspicion of the US, putting this perceived ‘struggle’ with America centre stage is the work of Xi.
- Crucial to effecting the CCP’s foreign policy is the strategy of the United Front Work Department (UFWD). Its essence is to identify the ‘main enemy’ and seek to move other parties from a position of amity or alliance with the main enemy to one of neutrality, or from a position of neutrality to the CCP’s side.
- There are eight identifiable ways in which the CCP’s united front strategy is applied to its long-term goal:
- Portraying Beijing as the leader of the so-called ‘Global South’. Xi and other leaders spend time meeting and cultivating relationships with the leaders of even the smallest countries. All have one vote in the United Nations (UN) and other international fora..
- Reforming existing global governance structures to include an anti-US bias. The CCP supports the UN and other international organisations, but wants to reform them and change their values.
- Building alternate structures. Beyond reforming international organisations, the CCP assiduously promotes the establishment of new ones with a different focus from bodies currently led by Euro-Atlantic nations. These organisations range from the BRICS gathering, to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the ten member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
- Characterising the US as a menace on the world stage, in contrast to Beijing’s approach to foreign relations. This includes accusations of American bullying tactics and ‘cold war’ thinking, among many other claims.
- Aligning with Russia and countries which oppose the US. The CCP works on the principle that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’.
- Accusing the US of interference in regional affairs and of being an unreliable ally.
- De-dollarisation. The CCP’s desire to move away from reliance on the US dollar as the main currency for trade and finance is long-standing and given added impetus by sanctions imposed on Russia.
- Denigrating the US and its systems. The CCP uses its extensive propaganda machinery to weaken the appeal of the US to both domestic and international audiences. It portrays American democracy as seriously flawed, inferior to Beijing’s own ‘whole process people’s democracy’.
- Relations between Beijing and Washington reached their nadir in the period from summer 2022 and November 2023. Xi and Joe Biden, former President of the US, had no calls or meetings in 12 months. Typical was a paper by the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) from May 2023, which accused the US of using coercive diplomacy against developing countries, of violating the principles of fair trade, military pressure, intensifying division and antagonism in the international community, and a raft of other crimes.
- The two countries’ leaders eventually met in November 2023 at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in San Francisco. High-level contacts and meetings were resumed, as well as some consultations on international and regional issues. But tensions, accusations and cancellations remain.
- Wherever the unpredictability of Trump takes American policy – and the likelihood is that current policies on technology, tariffs, Taiwan and more will continue – the CCP’s united front strategy and the eight methods outlined in this report will continue to underpin CCP diplomacy.
- Europe and the rest of the so-called ‘Global North’ will increasingly be forced to choose between the protagonists. In line with its united front strategy, the CCP will reinforce efforts to detach America’s allies from their traditional alignment. On the other side, Trump and his new close team are unlikely to tolerate an ambiguous stance from allies. For the UK in particular, with its close trade and investment links with the US, the importance of the Five Eyes grouping and of military ties, the direction of the choice is inevitable. Europe, too, is likely to be faced with unpleasant consequences if it does not make a clear choice. The idea that economic interests and national security can be kept separate is past its sell-by date.
About the author
Charles Parton is Chief Advisor to the China Observatory and a Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy.
Disclaimer
This publication should not be considered in any way to constitute advice. It is for knowledge and educational purposes only. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Council on Geostrategy or the views of its Advisory Council.
Image credit: Flag USA and China close up. Relationship between America and China, Canva pro content licence
No. 2025/03 | ISBN: 978-1-914441-94-3