Britain must be prepared to lend all possible support to ensure that Russia is defeated in Ukraine and that Ukraine survives to thrive and prosper after the war is over, argue Dr. Alexander Lanoszka and James Rogers. The paper has a foreword written by Sir Michael Fallon KCB, Secretary of State for Defence 2014-2017.
In this Policy Paper for the Council on Geostrategy, the authors summarise Britain’s growing political and economic engagement with the Black Sea region since the fall of the Soviet Union before outlining four possible outcomes to Russia’s war in Ukraine:
- Russia triumphant: Russia’s successful offensive sees it dominate the Black Sea and threaten other countries in the region, such as Moldova and Georgia.
- Russia contained: Russia gets bogged down in a protracted insurgency in Ukraine and employs brutal counterinsurgency tactics. The Black Sea remains a nervous region yet the Russian threat, whilst still acute, is manageable.
- Russia embittered: Russia’s invasion fails to achieve its objectives, yet effectively destroys Ukraine. Immense refugee flows to Black Sea states cause a humanitarian crisis, and maritime governance breaks down.
- Russia defeated: The Kremlin’s renewed offensive in Ukraine is thrust back, and the security of Ukraine and the Black Sea, and beyond that, the Euro-Atlantic, mostly assured.
Dr Lanoszka and James Rogers then make several policy suggestions for HM Government to consider in the coming years during and after the war, which can be read in the full Policy Paper.
The renewed Russian attack on Ukraine is already forcing all of us to rethink our security: witness the debates now on German defence spending, the American commitment to NATO, even Swedish neutrality. But what is certain is that the Black Sea must never again be overlooked.
This stimulating paper should be read by all those – military officers, officials, parliamentarians – who care not just about Ukraine, but about our wider Euro-Atlantic security.Sir Michael Fallon KCB, Defence Secretary 2014-2017